Cycles bottom to bottom · from daily prices
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Bitcoin halving countdown and live BTC price
Follow the bitcoin price live and count down to the next bitcoin halving, expected in spring 2028 at block 1,050,000. The chart marks every halving and each four-year bitcoin cycle from bottom to peak, adds a rough forecast for the end of the current cycle and can show Strategy (MSTR) and its mNAV alongside BTC.
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Forecast: next end of cycle based on previous cycles
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Performance CoinGecko
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Market CoinGecko
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Next halving block 1,050,000
—blocks to go
The block reward then drops from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. Estimate based on the average block time since the 2024 halving.
Sentiment alternative.me
—Fear & Greed Index
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Price and chart: real time via websocket (every second). Market data every 2 minutes, network every minute.
About this page & FAQ
Halving Is Coming follows the bitcoin price live and puts it in the context of the halvings and the four-year cycle: where are we now, how did previous cycles go, and when could this one end?
What is the bitcoin halving?
Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, the reward miners receive for a new block is cut in half. This slows the creation of new bitcoin until the limit of 21 million is reached around 2140. The most recent halving took place on 20 April 2024 and lowered the reward to 3.125 BTC.
When is the next bitcoin halving?
At block 1,050,000, expected in spring 2028. The exact date depends on how quickly new blocks are found; the countdown on this page recalculates it continuously from the current block height.
How many bitcoin halvings have there been?
Four: on 28 November 2012 (reward from 50 to 25 BTC), 9 July 2016 (to 12.5 BTC), 11 May 2020 (to 6.25 BTC) and 20 April 2024 (to 3.125 BTC). The fifth halving, at block 1,050,000, will lower the reward to 1.5625 BTC.
What is a bitcoin cycle?
So far the bitcoin price has moved in cycles of about four years: a bottom, a strong rise after the halving, a peak and a deep fall to the next bottom. This site measures each cycle from bottom to bottom using daily prices.
How is the cycle-end forecast calculated?
It averages a few simple methods based on earlier cycles: the average cycle length, the average time from peak to bottom and the average time between a bottom and the next halving. With so few cycles it is a rough rule of thumb, not a prediction and not investment advice.
What is mNAV?
mNAV compares a company's stock market value with the value of the crypto it holds: market value (MSTR shares × share price) divided by the value of its BTC. Above 1× the market pays more than the coins are worth. On this page it is an estimate for MSTR.
Where does the data come from?
Live prices come from Binance, daily history from Coinbase, market data from CoinGecko, network data from mempool.space, the MSTR price from Bybit and sentiment from alternative.me. Your browser fetches everything directly; this site stores nothing about you on a server, except a message you choose to send through the contact form. Your settings, such as currency, language and the retirement calculator input, stay only in your own browser. ETF flows come from SoSoValue (the latest trading days are sometimes supplemented with Farside Investors). On-chain activity figures come from Coin Metrics (Community) and search popularity from Google Trends; both are updated weekly.